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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.11.29 01:26:00 -
[1]
Originally by: Davramm As you can see, after adding 10% for 14 days you end up with an overall increase of 279% If you look at the red line in my chart for the 14 days preceeding the 300% day, you will see that every day was close to 10%, with a couple much higher.
In finance this is called the 14 day moving average. If you would like to understand how and why people in finance use this term, here is a link wiki
You should read that. What you explained is not a moving average. Note the part where Wikipedia says (paraphrased) "add n data points and divide by n".
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.11.29 01:40:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Davramm That is 1 way of doing a simple moving average, if you read further you will see other cumulative moving averages. My method is accurate,and useful to my investors.
Same difference, only with i instead of n. This average still divides by the total number of data points (which you don't do). The difference between a moving average and a cumulative average is that the moving average has a fixed length and 'moves', that is when one data point gets added the oldest gets removed, whereas with a cumulative average the start point stays the same (no data points get removed) even when new data points get added. See this graph showing the number of users of my service; the yellow line is the 7-day moving average and the black line the cumulative average since the service started (note the graph is from last summer).
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.11.29 01:57:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Estel Arador on 29/11/2009 01:58:30
Originally by: davraam My investors understand it. 99% of people who dont invest with me understand it.
Anyone who doesn't question the figures for the moving average you give does not understand it. An average always involves division by something - you don't divide by anything.
And those investment bankers sound nuts to me if they're impressed by a moving average which isn't an average.
Edit: And the solution is really simple. Stop calling it a moving average. Just call it 'return' or something as Rex suggested.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.11.29 23:10:00 -
[4]
What happened to the share price on the 27th/28th?
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.11.30 20:57:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal The conversation I had with the OP was about maths, that's all. It's pretty easy to tell if someone understands maths or not. Generally, I trust people who can sort their numbers out.
You did see the discussion about the "average", right? I agree it's pretty easy to tell if someone understands maths or not, but we seem to have come to a different conclusion anyway.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.01 00:21:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Estel Arador on 01/12/2009 00:25:20 Things would be much clearer if the total number of shares and the total value of the fund would be disclosed.
So far we've had Liberty Eternal endorsing this fund by saying that this growth rate is manageable for funds below 20B.
We've had Davram state that he has 6.5B in personal shares and that those shares constitute less than 40% of the fund. Depending on how much less exactly, Davramm is either very close to or already past the point where he can keep up his profits, as admitted by his biggest fanboi.
(Al this assuming it is a legit trading operation, of course.)
Edit: just noticed the website is actually updated with full information, the fund appears to be at just over 20B as I expected. The point stands, how much will profits drop as the fund grows?
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.01 00:40:00 -
[7]
Note that your "14 day moving average of the cumulative return" [or whatever you called it] has been dropping steadily for more than two weeks now, yet you expect it to be as high as it is currently two weeks from now.
Is there any reason to assume the current downward trend will be broken?
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.01 15:14:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Davramm Yes, I limit the investments of people I do not know to 100M isk. Once the people who are interested in investing join the fund, and the dust settles from dominion, I will then revisit the topic of my funds capacity for isk. My primary concern is to keep my daily returns within criteria
Let me put that through my special translator and see what comes out:
"I'm getting as many small investments as possible now, so that I later can ask for more money from each individual investor without letting anyone else know how much I have exactly."
Then there's my even more special translator which predicts what the sentence would be:
"At that point I will run with the money."
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.01 21:51:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Davramm The market is very active and I am getting low on cash. I have just increased my investor capacity by 4 billion. First come first serve
Translation: "Time for one last money grab before I run off, don't miss out!"
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.03 08:03:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Davramm My net worth = total cash + total in escrow + sell orders + (buy orders * 0.0068) (my paid broker fee)
Paid broker fee is part of your NW? Math genius my ass.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.03 08:17:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Davramm those fees make up a significant portion of my wealth.
They're not your wealth; broker fees are paid and never coming back.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.03 20:29:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Davramm 1. Stuff
2. Stuff
3. Stuff
4. Stuff
5. Stuff
6. You can't count nor calculate averages.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.04 00:39:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Wyehr Quadrupling cosmo's money is a neat trick, but it doesn't really prove much. All it really means is that you have at least 750 million set aside that you haven't blown on hookers and vodka yet.
It's a good move by cosmoray though. Either he earns a nice sum of money or he proves this is a scam; win-win.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.04 01:22:00 -
[14]
Edited by: Estel Arador on 04/12/2009 01:23:04
Originally by: Kwint Sommer It is a good move for him personally but is it a good move for MD?
I meant it's a good move for him. For MD it's probably bad. These kind of high risk bets (effectively betting the ponzi scheme won't collapse before you get paid off) work when one person does them. There's the chance that other people try to copy that behaviour, leading to increased input in the scheme and increased probability that the failure will happen sooner rather than later. The ideal moment (from the operator's perspective) would of course be after paying back the first (to allow for positive feedback) but before the bulk has to be paid back.
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Estel Arador
Minmatar Estel Arador Corp Services
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Posted - 2009.12.10 21:14:00 -
[15]
Another failed investment where the operator somehow thinks the failure gives him credit for the next try. It doesn't. If you can't see a busy rl coming a week in advance, who's gonna trust you next time you promise huge returns over a long stretch of time?
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Estel Arador
Minmatar Estel Arador Corp Services
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Posted - 2009.12.10 21:57:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Estel Arador on 10/12/2009 21:58:01
Originally by: Cista2 Not invest-worthy? Now that it doesn't look so much like a scam anymore, the whole quire of saints is here to bash the interest rates? Lmao!
It still looks like a scam and the next "investment opportunity" will also look like a scam, only even more suspicious since it will refer to this failed one (framed as hugely successful, of course).
Sure you got paid, but it's common for scammers to pay out a little to reap the big rewards later.
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Estel Arador
Minmatar Estel Arador Corp Services
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Posted - 2009.12.10 22:19:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Coconut Joe Hello Estel Arador, are you able to make investment decisions using data on a potential investee's past actions is you disregard this type of data?
If "this type of data" refers to self-reported and unconfirmed claims, you can't make a reliable investments decision, no (unless you count not investing as an investment decision).
At this point an audit would still be useful to confirm that Davramm did what he claims he did.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2009.12.10 22:29:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Davramm I must say, It blows my mind how people are unable to understand or retain information in this forum.
Anyone who thinks at this time (and has read this thread) that I am interested in being audited or taking on new investors is misleading themselves
I was answering a question by Coconut Joe about whether or not the current information would be useful for future investment decisions. As I said I think it isn't. I also answered the implicit question of what type of information would be useful. I had and have no expectation that that type of information will be given.
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